Play ball

Happy Opening Day! I made it, you made it, we're here at last. Congratulations. (Never mind that it was snowing in Seattle 3 days ago — God also is entitled to his little jokes.)

So here we go. The Ms are, on paper, quite improved over last year, but as always, there are far too many variables on this team. For one thing, their 88-win record from last year was a huge confluence of luck, which may or may not roll over into this season (I'm not a die-hard stats junkie when it comes to baseball... I place very high value on the intangibles — especially little things like luck and fate).

The pitching looks very promising this year — if nothing else, Bedard-instead-of-Weaver has “tipping point” written all over it. If the bullpen (pretty much the same guys from last year, with long-relief knuckleballer Dickey thrown into the mix) can match their performance from last year, we are in business.

Offensively, there doesn't seem to be much cooking for the season, except of course for Ichiro, who will doubtlessly buttress his Hall-of-Fame stats with another 200-hitter. Wilkerson for Guillen in right has me worried. Say what you will about Guillen's attitude — he brought something to the team last year that has been missing ever since Piniella's departure. And Wilkerson? I just hope he stays out of the way of Ichiro, who will have to play center and right this year.

I expect consistent (above average, but not stellar) performances from the likes of Ibanez and Beltre. Ibanez will make up for his poor defense with his cool-headed clutch hitting and his role as de facto team captain; Beltre will make up for his soft offensive numbers with his glove. Behind the plate, we're solid — for me, Jamie Burke is the team's most reassuring bench presence since Mark McLemore (I do wish we still had Broussard, though).

Which brings us to the Big Variable. The mofo of all variables. It hardly seems fair (or statistically responsible) to place a whole season on one man's shoulders, but really: Richie Sexson will make or break this team. He's the only dedicated power-hitter on the squad, and given the share of the payroll he takes home, he has only one damn job to do: Drive. Them. In.

If opposing pitchers don't respect and fear the middle of our lineup, we haven't a chance. Sexson needs to be, must be, the Big Bad Ugly. Who else is gonna do it? Vidro? Ibanez? Beltre? In shifts, maybe, but not over the course of a whole season. Last year, Guillen shouldered much of the offensive responsibility. This year, there is no Plan B for power. Sexson has to produce. I won't be counting his strikeouts, but I'll be counting his LOBs for damn sure.

A big year for Sexson will give us a Division title. I think it really could be that simple, assuming the rest of the squad plays at least at 85% of their potential. Another toilet year from Sexson, and everyone else's performance will merely decide whether we finish 2nd or 4th.

No pressure, big guy.